What Fed’s Move Means for Currency ETFs

When the Federal Reserve announced yesterday that it would grow its balance sheet, that move also comes with implications for currency exchange traded funds (ETFs).

The Federal Reserve said it would expand its balance sheet to include another $750 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities, $100 billion in agency secrities and $300 billion in longer-term Treasury securities over the next six months.

After the announcement, foreign currencies rallied and ultimately brought the rally seen in the U.S. dollar to a grinding halt, leading to its biggest daily drop in more than two decades. Yesterday, the dollar fell 3.8% against the euro and 3.6% against the pound.

The long-term value of the dollar is now being questioned by some officials at Asia’s top think tanks, reports Reuters. Will the dollar remain a key global currency when all is said and done? Asia hopes that any decline in the dollar will be gradual to avoid more shocks to financial systems. For the time being, many market participants believe that the latest stimulus could lead to a prolonged decline in the dollar’s value.

If this is true, we could be looking at upswings in foreign currency ETFs in the near future. Watch the trend lines to see if this bears out, though. Note that these funds have already popped above their 50-day moving averages, and in some cases, the 200-day.

Dollars, and Pesos, and Euros, oh my

he currency exchange market has been in quite a mood lately, spelling trouble for those traveling around the globe, or working abroad and trying to send home money.

In the last few months, I’ve watched in horror as my home currency, the Canadian dollar, rose up to parity with the US dollar, and is now sitting at 1.05 US. The Mexican peso, which is the currency my unfortunate salary is denominated in, is pretty much tied to the greenback, so it declines in tandem with the US dollar.

Canadian TEFLers in Japan are unhappy as well as they watch their previously handsome salaries get whittled away as they try to pay back student loans back home.

What’s to blame for all the changes lately? Let’s ask the experts…

Declining dollar Who wins, who loses

But the baht is not alone. A number of traditionally risky and oft-overlooked currencies such as the Indian rupee and Brazilian real have become a whole lot more attractive recently, according to experts, helped in large part by the declining greenback.

This year has been particularly troubling for the U.S. dollar. An interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September and recent signs of softness in the underlying U.S. economy have only pressured an already weakened dollar.

The U.S. Dollar Index, which compares the dollar to a basket of six other currencies including the euro and Japanese yen, is down about 6.5 percent so far this year.

And with the Fed poised to continue cutting rates, the prevailing belief among currency experts is that more weakness lays ahead for the dollar.

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About The Foreign Currency Exchange

Foreign Currency Exchange (Forex) Trading allows an investor to participate in profitable fluctuations of world currencies. Forex trading works by selecting pairs of currencies and then measuring profit or loss by the fluctuations of one one currency's market activity compared to the other. For example, fluctuations in the value of the $ U.S. Dollar are measured against another world currency such as the £ British Pound, € Eurodollar, ¥ Japanese Yen etc. Being able to discern price trends in market activity is the essence of all profitable trading and this is what makes foreign currencies so exciting, currencies are the world's 'best trending' market. This gives Forex investors a profit making edge that is unavailable in most other markets.

Forex Trading is being called 'today's exciting new investment opportunity for the savvy investor'. The reason is that the Forex Trading Market only began to emerge in 1978, when worldwide currencies were allowed to 'float' according to supply and demand, 7 years after the Gold Standard was abandoned. Up until 1995 Forex Trading was only available to banks and large multinational corporations but today, thanks to the proliferation of the computer and a new era of internet-based communication technologies, this highly profitable market is open to everyone. The Forex Trading Market's growth has been unprecedented, explosive, and continues to be unequaled by any other trading market.

Unlike traditional trading which brings buyers and sellers together in a central location (trading floors) in Forex Trading there is no need for a centralized location. Forex is a market where worldwide traders conduct business by high-speed Internet connections with the Interbank Foreign Currency Exchange via Forex Clearinghouses (also called Forex Brokerage Firms). Forex has not only become the fastest growing trading market, but also the most profitable trading marketplace in the world.

Simply stated, Forex is the most profitable because it is the world's largest marketplace. The Foreign Currency market as a whole accounts for over 1.2 trillion dollars of trading per day (as determined by the fourth Central Bank Survey of Foreign Exchange and Derivatives Market Activity, 1998. This figure is understood to be significantly higher today). To put this into perspective, on any given day the Foreign Currency Exchange Market activity is vastly greater than the Stock Market. It is 75 times greater than the New York Stock Exchange where the average total daily value (using 1998 figures) of both foreign and domestic stocks is $16 billion, and much greater than the daily activity on the London Stock Exchange, with $11 billion.

Furthermore, in addition to being the world's largest and most profitable market, The Foreign Currency Exchange Market is the world's most powerful and persistent trading market regardless of negative economic indicators. This is because currencies 'trend' better than every other market due to their macro-economic nature. Unlike many commodities whose supply and demand fundamentals can literally change overnight (as we found in the sudden dot com 'market adjustment' and even more abruptly on September 11, 2001), currency fundamentals are much less random, and far more predictable. This is well illustrated in the way interest rates are changed gradually and only in small increments.

Other examples of fundamental predictability are illustrated by the following statistics. Of the $1.2 trillion day trading in Foreign Currency Exchange, 83% of spot foreign exchange activity and 95% of swap activity involves US Dollars. The Euro is the second most active currency at 37%. The Japanese Yen (24%) and the British Pound Sterling (10%) are ranked third and fourth. The Swiss Franc is 7%, and the Canadian and Australian Dollars account for 3%.

Spot Forex is the type of forex trade in which self-traders concentrate most of their investment activity for reasons that are self-explanatory. By definition, a Spot Forex transaction is a currency trade transaction that has a settlement (liquidation) within a maximum of 2 working days following the closing of the trade. Therefore Spot Forex allows the self-trader high liquidity. Another popular feature for well-advised Spot Forex self-traders is the strong profit potential from continual market fluctuations by buying a specific currency when it is weaker and selling it when it is stronger, and the continual pairing of strong currencies against weak ones. This potential for profit or loss is amplified by the effect of leverage. Leverage is a term that describes what can be achieved when a smaller amount of money controls a much larger amount of money. With regards to Forex Trading for example, a leverage-factor of 100 can allow the trader to hold a 100,000 US Dollar position with a modest 1,000 US Dollar margin deposit. Online Forex day trading focuses its investment activity largely on Spot Forex because of the 'risk manageability' of in-and-out trading plus the potential to generate excellent and highly liquid profits.

"Few financial industries generate as much excitement and profit as currency exchange. Traders around the world enter trades for weeks, days or split seconds, generating explosive moves or steady flows, and money changes hands quickly at a staggering daily average of a trillion US dollars. Forex profitability is legendary. George Soros of Quantum Fund realized a profit in excess of 1 billion dollars for a couple of days work in September 1992. Hans Hufschmid of Soloman Brothers, Inc. netted $28 million for 1993. Even by Wall Street standards, these numbers are heartstoppers". *

Despite its high trading volume and its fundamental role in the world, the Forex Market is rarely in the media limelight because its method of trading transaction is less visible than the Floor of a Stock Exchange. However, trading on the Foreign Currency Exchange Market is today surging into the public awareness, as flocks of internet traders are attracted by the market's inherent profitability and risk manageability. Add to this the absence of geographic or temporal boundaries and vibrantly active Forex market is open to all players.

Automated Forex Trading System: Does it Work?

Automated forex trading has become a popular way to make a profit by dealing in currency trading. Participants use the foreign currency exchange in much the same way they play the stock market. There are a number of advantages to trading currency instead of trading stocks.

If you are serious about getting a huge return on your investment by working smarter, not harder, check out this proven automated forex trading system.

Automatic forex trading utilizes a software program to predict rises and falls in currency rates and make profitable trading decisions. The software also makes the trades for you. With a Forex trading system like this one, you simply start up the program and begin turning a profit with very little effort. Your auto Forex trading can continue working around the clock so trades happen when news breaks rather than when the market opens.

Many people have seen success with automated forex trading but not all packages are created equal. Some have undergone a more rigorous testing process than others. For example, the FAP Turbo software has been tested in both back tests and live trades to ensure the product works. Most software packages have only been back tested, so they may or may not do well in live trading. It is better to find a software package that has been tested in both environments to ensure results.

Most people who opt for a forex trading system have little knowledge about the foreign currency trade market. That is one of the biggest advantages to forex trading software. These programs do all of the work for you, so all you have to do is install the software and kick off the program. Installation usually takes a few minutes and results can be seen the same day. Even people who have never traded currency before can make a profit with Forex.

Information About Forex Trading Systems

• 1. Proof - when developing a system, it's important to see whether it would have worked in the past. This is a crucial step in developing a system, since if it does not work on past data, it will probably not work on future data.

• 2. Reason - a good system should have a reason behind its mechanics. Although there are some systems that have weird, yet working logic, most systems need to have a good reason for its inner workings.

• 3. Ability to work on all common market conditions - good forex trading systems need to work on most market conditions: up, down, sideways, slow days, and fast days. A system that works only in one direction or under one condition may become useless when the market conditions change, and in the forex market those conditions change rapidly.

• 4. Technical support - common scam systems used to be sold with no technical support. If the user got stuck, it was his own problem. A good trading system has a good support support system behind it to answer any question and solve any problem that may be encountered.

Vision Actualization

The management of 4MB – Investment Limited has painstakingly and carefully shopped for and assembled the best group of tested, proven, efficient, dynamic, resilient and experienced professionals whose skill and knowledge guarantee customer satisfaction. The management provides excellent safe and conducive working environment tailored towards enriching our employees physically and intellectual know how. Our employment package ranks among the best in the industry thus we have a high retention ratio among our staff.